At the start of the 2022 College Football season, you would’ve received plenty of nods of agreement had you picked Michigan to be in the playoffs come New Year’s Eve. You would’ve been drug tested had you predicted the same fate for TCU.
Yet here we are. On Saturday, the undefeated 13-0 Michigan Wolverines will face the insurgent 12-1 TCU Horned Frogs for the right to take on the Peach. Bowl champions in Los Angeles.
Conventional wisdom says that TCU is out of it’s league and #2 Michigan should beat the brakes off of the #3 Horned Frogs. That would be the same fate of other CFP upstarts Washington (2016) and Cincinnati (2021).
However, there is a game to play. And if Jim Harbaugh’s squad plays a subpar game, then it could be Sonny Dykes’ team making the trip to SoFi.
Michigan’s path to the dance was mostly smooth. Coming off of an appearance in last year’s CFP, they were given great odds of getting there again. Outside of two games against ranked teams, they had a fairly easy schedule. Their signature win was incredibly impressive. They were able to beat their neighbors down south for the second year in row. The did so in convincing fashion; a 22 point win for their first victory in Columbus since 2000.
The Horned Frogs path to the big dance was significantly less conventional. In 2021 they finished 5-7. This resulted in the mid season sacking of their legendary head coach Gary Patterson. To replace them they plucked Dykes from regional rival SMU. They were ranked 7th in preseason polls. No, not 7th in the nation. They picked to finish 7th in the 10 team BIG XII. They were able to overcome those odds and five ranked opponents to finish the regular season undefeated. Their only blemish is a heartbreaking overtime loss to 9th ranked Kansas State, a team they had previously defeated in the regular season.
Michigan Wins If:
Their superior size and physicality overtakes TCU on both sides of the ball. As a team they rushed for 3159 yards. That ranks as 5th in the FBS and tops among playoff teams. Even after losing leading rusher Junior Blake Corum against Michigan, Sophomore Donovan Edwards rushed for 216 and 185 yards against Ohio State and Purdue respectively. If they’re able to run the ball that effectively, they should win.
TCU Wins If:
They contain Michigan’s running game to get off the field in key situations. This will keep the game close. That’s been a specialty for the Horned Frogs. 7 of their 12 wins were in games decided by 10 points or less. Senior QB and Heisman finalist Max Duggan has been at his best in clutch situations, leading his team to 4 comeback victories in the 2022 campaign. They will need him to lead a balanced effort on offense to keep up with the Michigan offense. If they can do that, they have a puncher’s chance.
Bottom Line
The path to victory is easier for the favored Wolverines. They have a size and depth advantage. But the pressure is also on Michigan. Anything short of a win on Saturday and this season is a major disappointment. TCU, on the other hand, can consider their season an unqualified success regardless of Saturday’s outcome. The question is, are they happy to be there or hungry for more?
We find out Saturday in Glendale.